Topes pitching staff taking shape

It's 13 days from the start of the Colorado Rockies season and 16 days from the start of the Albuquerque Isotopes opener. The pitching staffs for both teams are becoming more clear, although a couple interesting decisions loom.

A flurry of transactions over the last week have shaped the outlook. The Rockies, in a surprise move, released Jhoulys Chacin last weekend. Minor league free agent Buddy Bosher was also released. Cole White, a former New Mexico Lobo who I was penciling onto the Topes bullpen, decided to retire due to a shoulder injury.

The Rockies rotation now starts with Kyle Kendrick, Tyler Matzek and Jordan Lyles. Then it gets interesting. Chacin's release opens one spot. An injury to ace Jorge De La Rosa will likely start him on the disabled list and opens another spot temporarily.

Based on zero inside knowledge, I'm predicting the two spots will be filled by David Hale and Christian Bergman.

The snag in the prediction is that Hale is nursing an oblique injury himself. The reports from Scottsdale make it sound not so serious, but teams always downplay injuries and the De Las Rosa injury didn't serious too serious right away either. If Hale's oblique injury lingers, then I think the fifth spot goes to Eddie Butler, and the next seven paragraphs are irrelevant.

Perhaps it's a selfish prediction, because I want to see the young studs pitch at The Lab, but I still think Jon Gray and Butler begin the season with the Isotopes. Both are impressing this spring and they are clearly the future. Gray hasn't pitched above double-A, so he's more likely of the young phenoms to begin at triple-A. You'd like to see him get accustomed to pitching in altitude too. Butler made two ineffective starts and one good quality start in the majors last year, one total start at Triple-A, one at High-A, and 18 at Double-A.

I haven't been around the Rockies long enough to know their philosophy, and it's bound to change anyway with Jeff Bridich the new general manager. But a lot of teams don't like calling up their best prospects, sending them down, and calling them back up. They prefer calling them up when they know they will stay up.

Let's say the Rockies broke camp with Gray and Butler in the rotation. One of them is getting sent back down whenever De La Rosa is healthy. That also puts them, and they're good friends, in a situation where they are competing against each other. What if they both dominate? That's unlikely. More likely, they will experience the usual rookie struggles with consistency. Then you deal with the perception they weren't ready, got rushed, are getting demoted, confidence might get shaken, fans' enthusiasm dampens.

Early in the season, the Rockies can't afford to let two rookies get pounded and learn their lessons. They want to win. Midway through the season, if the Rockies aren't in contention, it's easier to keep giving the kids the ball every fifth day to get experience, even if they're taking some lumps.

Bergman is already used to going back-and-forth between triple-A and the majors. He did it last year. Hale also did that in the Braves organization, plus he can be shifted to the bullpen as a long reliever.

Based on what they've accomplished, Bergman and Hale deserve a chance to show what they can do in the majors. If either struggles, then you've got the phenoms waiting in the wings. However, if you start with the phenoms and they struggle, it looks like Bergman or Hale are insurance policies that you're cashing. And whenever you decide Butler/Gray are ready for another chance at the majors, Bergman/Hale are the likeliest candidates to get passed over a second time. Bad for morale throughout the organization.

Again, easy for me to say. I'm biased. I want to call games with Butler and Gray this year. I'm projecting them in the Topes rotation, along with Chad Bettis for sure.

Bettis was a starter throughout the minors, converted to relief last year, struggled, and is now returning to the rotation. For the last two spots, it's a four-way race between left-handers John Lannan, Aaron Laffey and Chris Rusin, plus former all-star Jair Jurrjens. (Full disclosure: I almost forgot about Jurrjens because I've read so little about him at camp.)

Early in the season, it's possible two of the starters could "piggyback" on a given day. If any starter isn't stretched out enough for more than 60-75 pitches, it's convenient to schedule them to each pich four innings in the same game, as they build up endurance. That allows you to carry six starters.

For the Rockies bullpen, they already turned John Axford's minor league contract into a guaranteed spot. He joins LaTroy Hawkins, Rex Brothers, Adam Ottavino, Boone Logan and Brooks Brown as locks. I'm predicting Christian Friedrich makes the team too because he's out of options.

From what I've read, the Rockies are looking at eight relievers to begin the season. If they go with seven, there's your bullpen. If there's an eighth, I think it's either veteran Rafael Betancourt or young flamethrower Jairo Diaz. I'm leaning toward the veteran because the veteran almost always wins the job out of spring training because it helps with roster management, and there was a glowing article about him today.

That puts Diaz in the Topes bullpen, perhaps as the closer, and I'm going to assume the Rockies will want eight relievers in the Topes bullpen too. Tommy Kahnle was optioned to the minors March 25, a somewhat surprising move since he was in the majors all of last year, a necessity to keep the Rule 5 pickup. A couple weeks ago, the Rockies decided they'd use Gus Schlosser and Yohan Flande as relievers in the minors. That's four and Jorge Rondon is five.

For the final three spots, I'm projecting three who were very good for the Rockies at double-A last year: Scott Oberg, Ken Roberts and Kraig Sitton.

It's always possible somebody, or multiple people, are injured that I'm not aware.

If so, don't be surprised if we see former Lobos reliever Austin House back in the Duke City. House was dominant for the A's single-A team last year and only made a brief cameo at triple-A, so perhaps he begins this season at double-A.

There's still lot of names that I'm neglecting, starting with those signed as minor league free agents: Brett Marshall, Richard Castillo, Carlos Hernandez, Jason Gurka, Justin Miller, Jose Ortega and Leuris Gomez. Two other relievers from last year's double-A bullpen who were very good, Nelson Gonzalez and Ryan Arrowood, could wind up in Albuquerque too.

This time of year is fascinating for the competition for major-league jobs. As you can tell, the Rockies have some tough decisions to make. But whoever doesn't make the majors will still have a job in the minors and will probably end up at Coors Field eventually.

From a pure emotional standpoint, the decision for who makes the triple-A roster is even more compelling. For those who don't make it, some end up at double-A. Others get released. They'll be scrambling for a job with another organization, who is probably in the same conundrum with more bodies than roster spots, or look to an independent league, or decide if it's time to retire.

It's a stressful time of year for those players and their families.

We'll find out in two weeks.